779
FXUS63 KDVN 021143
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
543 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions with mostly cloudy skies today.
- Forecast trending drier through the weekend, with a warming
trend Sunday into next week. Above normal temperatures likely
for much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive and
persistent stratus deck across much of IA and northwest IL, with
a small pocket of clearing over southeast IA, northeast MO, and
west central IL. These clouds are trapped underneath an
inversion shown around 900mb on our 00z DVN sounding last
evening. DVN VAD wind profile at 1 am shows north northwest
winds 15-20 kts in this cloud bearing layer. Temperatures at
2am, were in the lower to mid 20s.
All model guidance has struggled with the evolution of these
clouds overnight and given the time of year, I have trended to
a more pessimistic cloud cover forecast for at least this
morning. Some breaks/filtered sun will still be possible late
morning/early afternoon, with the back edge of the stratus in
northwest WI progged to reach our northern border around 15z per
AWIPS time of arrival tool. The far south may start off the day
with some sun, but additional mid-high level clouds will move
in from the west ahead of a weak shortwave. Temperatures will
not rise much from morning values, only topping out in the mid
to upper 20s or similar to yesterday`s highs.
The aforementioned shortwave to pass to our southwest tonight,
keeping the better forcing/moisture out of the CWA. Dry
conditions are maintained in the forecast, with cloud cover once
again the main factor on how cold we get overnight. Raised lows
a few degrees into the upper teens/low 20s with the expected
cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Western CONUS upper ridge to slide east to start the period and
flatten to a more zonal flow early next week. This will bring dry
and seasonable conditions through Sunday, with a warming trend
next week. Periodic bouts of cloudiness could make for somewhat
challenging temperature forecasts.
Several shortwaves will move through the flow aloft topping the
ridge and largely remaining to our north. The latest 00z
deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the better
lift/moisture across MN/WI for both the Sunday night and
Tuesday systems. As a result, only a slight chance PoP (0.01") footprint Sunday night, which is now almost all in
WI. This also aligns with the latest NBM 24 hour QPF
probability for greater than 0.01" less than 20% for all periods
through Wednesday. Still, will have to keep an eye on the
potential for light warm advection precip Sunday night in
northern IL, where thermal profiles suggest a brief wintry mix
would be possible.
Regarding temperatures, a warming trend is forecast beginning
Sunday and lasting through most if not all of next week. 850mb
temps will rise above 0C Sunday afternoon and will remain above
freezing through Friday night. Above normal temperatures are
likely and is highlighted well in CPC`s 6-10 day temp outlook
through Jan 11th (75% probability of above normal temps). Normal
highs Jan 6-11th are in the upper 20s/lower 30s and normal lows
are near 10/teens. Latest NBM probabilities for high
temperatures greater than 50 degrees are 40-80% along and south
of I-80 Monday through Wednesday. Will have to keep tabs on
the warmup for any additional break-up ice jam potential on some
of our area tributary rivers.
The next chance of any appreciable precipitation looks to occur
late next week and through next weekend, as several pieces of
energy eject northeast from digging western trof. Unfortunately,
the timing, location, and evolution of these systems and how
they interact with any northern stream energy remains to be seen
this far out. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
An MVFR stratus deck continues to linger over most of the area
early this morning, with some higher level clouds over the
southern half of the area. The latest GOES-East satellite
imagery shows an area of clearing over southern Wisconsin into
northeast Iowa, which is expanding southward. While some areas
are going SKC here, others are only going BKN instead of OVC,
so MVFR conditions may still linger. Like the previous aviation
discussion mentioned, model guidance continues to struggle with
how this stratus deck will change with time, so there is larger
uncertainty with the TAF forecasts. It is expected that the low-
level moisture will decrease eventually today, supporting VFR
conditions later on. Winds will remain from the northerly
direction, only around 5 knots or so.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross/McClure
AVIATION...Schultz
NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion