206
FXUS63 KDVN 251122
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant Memorial Day, with dry conditions and highs in the
  80s.

- Rain chances decreasing further mid-week, with most areas
  remaining dry through at least Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures likely for the rest of May, with highs
  in the 80s each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Early morning satellite imagery and radar mosaics showed
the remnants of severe thunderstorms that occurred over
southeast SD last evening, now over northwest IA on the nose of
a 50kt LLJ observed from FSD VWP data. These storms also had
some upper jet support, moisture convergence, and steep mid-
level lapse rates per SPC mesoanalysis. Recent radar trends
have seen these storms weakening as they move east into a less
supportive environment over central IA. Closer to home, our 00z
DVN sounding showed a dry and deeply mixed profile below 750mb
aiding in higher confidence in mostly dry conditions today.
Mild overnight temperatures were once again seen area-wide with
1am readings in the upper 50s/low 60s.

The aforementioned showers/storms to push east over IA and
continue to decay/decrease in coverage through sunrise. Have
kept slight chance (0.1" QPF) and higher
confidence in mostly dry conditions for the CWA. If this trend
continues, the entire area may be dry for most of the week. The
only caveat is prospects of a backdoor cold front Wednesday
night that `may` bring some sprinkles/light showers but a very
dry BL could keep this as an increase in clouds.

Thursday onward...persistent Omega block to become further
entrenched as the strengthening upper ridge (584 dam per LREF)
becomes established near the US-Canada border. This unseasonably
strong ridge (2.5 sigma or near 99th percentile per climo) to
bring continued warm and dry conditions for the rest of May. For
now, will keep the NBM output of 15-40% PoPs but I have my
suspicions that these will be lowered even more in future
forecasts. This doesn`t bode well for the ag community as we
could sure use the rain for the recently planted crops. All of
eastern IA, northwest IL, and northeast MO has received less
than 60% of normal rainfall in the past 30 days. In fact,
Rockford, IL and Milwaukee, WI will see a Top 3 driest May if
they receive no more rain for the month which is looking very
probable.

Going into the weekend, high pressure settles into the region. This
should bring a continuation to the quiet weather, with above normal
temperatures through the end of the week/weekend and mostly dry
conditions. This pattern will be favorable for more backdoor cold
fronts, but some uncertainty remains due to widely varying solutions
in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Light
showers extending from east of KOLZ southwestward to just east
of KPEA will continue to dissipate while moving eastward as they
encounter plenty of dry air in the lower levels. Some mid-
level clouds around 11 kft will continue to pass over CID and
DBQ before scattering out by this afternoon. Southerly winds
should strengthen by this afternoon as deeper mixing commences,
with gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected at both CID and DBQ. Gusts
at MLI and BRL aren`t expected as winds aloft should remain
weaker.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Schultz

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion