988
FXUS63 KDVN 010537
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires will continue to stream southward
  through the weekend. Some of the smoke could mix down to the
  surface and lead to reduced air quality at times.

- Active pattern returns Tuesday through Thursday next week, bringing
  higher chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
  storms could become strong to severe on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

The main story for the weekend continues to be the lingering smoke
aloft from Canadian wildfires. This is being sent southward on
northerly flow aloft as we remain on the western side of a deep
longwave trough that will loiter over the northeastern CONUS through
Sunday night. The HRRR`s Vertically-Integrated Smoke output
depicts the smoke just continuing to stream southward today and
Sunday, so expect to see hazy skies across the area. Vertical
cross sections from the HRRR near our area continue to show the
smoke around the 850-700 mb layer, so if the boundary layer can
mix that deeply, which it might be able to do today and Sunday,
then some of the smoke could mix down to the surface. There
continues to be some differences among the HRRR and RAP smoke
models on the exact concentration of surface smoke, with the
HRRR more aggressive than the RAP, but both indicate at least a
small degree of smoke able to reach the surface, which could
lead to reduced air quality.

Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front has made its way into the region
this afternoon from the northeast, which is evident by a wind-shift
line, with flow from the northeast over our northeastern CWA. So
far, no showers have developed along the boundary, but SBCAPE of 500-
1000 J/kg per the 31.12z HREF ensemble suggests at least modest
instability to generate some showers. However, CAMs are still
in disagreement on if anything will develop this afternoon and
evening, so we have maintained very low PoPs (

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion