055
FXUS63 KDVN 221742
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1142 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold temperatures expected tonight and Friday morning,
with dangerously cold wind chills of 25 below to around 40
below zero. An Extreme Cold Warning is now in effect for the
entire area for late tonight through Friday morning.
- Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills will linger through
the weekend, but may not be quite as cold as tonight/Friday
morning. As a result, an Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect
from Friday afternoon until Saturday afternoon.
- A winter storm will pass through the southern CONUS Friday
through the weekend, but is trending northward. Snow chances
have increased to 30-60% with the highest chances across our
far south/east, however GEFS/ECS/NBM probabilities for
measurable precipitation (>.01) would support a further increase
in snow chances particularly south of I-80. Accumulation
potential of a few inches appears possible, particularly across
our southern counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Much more tranquil conditions greet us early this morning in the wake
of an Arctic front, which has pushed through the St Louis area.
Some stratus lingers about in the cyclonic flow into parts of E Iowa.
Upstream another Arctic boundary extends from MN into ND, which will
sweep across the area this afternoon into evening. This will foster
additional stratus and overall skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy.
Forecast soundings show much of the stratus in the DGZ and thus will be
capable of a little flakage. Meanwhile, sufficient low level
instability/steep lapse rates and moisture are present for some
scattered light snow shower potential along the leading edge of
the Arctic front - although soundings have trended slightly drier
and thus not expecting these to be anywhere near the magnitude of
what was observed last evening. Winds may occasionally gust from
the west/southwest ahead of the front and combined with some
sunshine may get high temperatures back at or even a bit above
freezing across the south. High temperatures will drop off to the
north with highs only in the teens to around 20 due to snow cover,
more clouds initially and an earlier frontal passage.
As the Arctic air invades this afternoon and evening it will be
accompanied by brisk winds with BUFR soundings and wind gust forecasts
from HRRR and RAP supportive of a period of 30 kt to perhaps around
35 kt on gusts for a few hour period before settling into more
of a range of 20-25+ kt through the rest of tonight. Can`t rule out
some transient blowing/drifting of snow during the period of
strongest winds this afternoon into early evening along and just
behind the front, mainly north of Hwy 30 where residual snow cover
exists.
Expect rapidly falling temperatures well below zero tonight with
negative teens below zero near/north of I-80. These temperatures
combined with the gusty winds will lead to dangerously cold wind
chills in the range of -25F to around -40F overnight (coldest near
the Hwy 20 corridor) through midday on Friday. As a result, the watch
was upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning areawide 06z-09z through 18z
on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
The wind will be decreasing Friday afternoon into Saturday morning,
as high pressure moves into the region, so wind chills may remain
above warning criteria (-25F to -30F) and so the Extreme Cold Watch
could be converted to a Cold Weather Advisory during this time.
There is some uncertainty pertaining to cloud cover from the winter
storm developing across the southern U.S. with potential impacts
on temperatures. If more cloudiness occurs (jet dynamics and moisture
aloft favorable for mid/high clouds impacting radiational cooling)
then temperatures will likely not be quite as cold and potentially
could stay above advisory levels (-15F to -25F far south, -20F to
-29F elsewhere). However, if the system tracks further south
resulting in less cloud cover, or if winds trend a bit stronger
then it could end up colder and potentially near warning criteria
for some areas. Due to the uncertainty we didn`t want to commit to
upgrading during this timeframe just yet and have kept the
Extreme Cold Watch in effect from Friday PM through Saturday PM.
Otherwise, nearly all of the attention this weekend will be with
what is looking to be a significant winter storm set to impact
the south/east CONUS from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast with heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain. What
remains from 24 hours ago is that several models continue to
support more phasing of the energy within the 500 mb trough, and
thus swipe the area with the northern edge of what looks to be a
fairly large expansive precipitation shield given favorable jet
dynamics and broad isentropic ascent. It will be plenty cold to
where any precipitation would be snow, with chances having nudged
upward to now 30-60% with the highest chances south of I-80 for
Saturday PM and Saturday night before diminishing on Sunday.
NBM/LREF/GEFS/ECS probabilities for measurable precipitation (>.01)
however are largely much higher 50-90% north to south and so we
may continue to see our PoP forecast increase over the next day
or two. Preliminarily it looks like minor impacts from this system
for our region with not much in the way of wind, and any accumulations
being light (few inches possible south). But, given the northward
shift still being suggested by some guidance it certainly bears
monitoring for any changes.
Next week the pattern looks to remain unsettled with the area largely
residing on the cold side of northwest to southeast low-mid level
baroclinic zone, with cyclonic flow aloft potentially shuttling in
periodic disturbances. Far too early to be resolved, but perhaps
more ebbs and flows on temperatures with some moderation at times
(although likely no better than near normal) and some bitter cold at
times too along with periodic precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
MVFR ceilings linger at KDBQ with flurries that are not
impacting visibility at this time. Winds are forecast to slowly
turn from the west this afternoon to the northwest by evening
and then northerly overnight. Winds speeds will initially be
sustained at 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots and
then lowered winds to 10 to 15 knots after 00 utc with gusts up
to 25 knots. Flurries are possible at all TAF sites this
afternoon otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the
period.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday
for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday
for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for IAZ098-
099.
IL...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday
for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday
for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for ILZ025-
026-034-035.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday
for MOZ009-010.
Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for MOZ009-
010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Cousins
NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion