365
FXUS63 KDVN 241832
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
132 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity returns this weekend and into early next
  week. Heat indices around or exceeding 100 degrees are
  expected Sunday and Monday. An Extreme Heat Watch has been
  issued for Sunday into Monday.

- Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday that may be
  strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Forcing aloft will bring a band of sprinkles and showers
through the central parts of the area through mid-day. Progged
soundings of the atmosphere continue to show respectable amounts
of dry air. The combination of the dry air and weakening
forcing will result in a gradual decay of the light
precipitation through the morning.

Tonight return flow develops which will cause dew points to slowly
rise through the night. Another passing upper level disturbance in
the warm advection aloft may generate some isolated to low end
scattered (10-30%) showers during the night. A rogue thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Saturday through Monday
Assessment...a certainty (>98%) of high heat and humidity. Low
(80%) confidence of continued heat and humidity

Starting Monday night and continuing the remainder of the week, the
heat dome and associated upper level ridge slowly de-amplifies. A
weak surface high will briefly turn winds around to the north and
east Monday night through Wednesday that will slightly lower
temperatures. However, heat indices in the mid and upper 90s will
still be common.

Wednesday night into Thursday the various models bring a very weak
disturbance through the area. Given the weak forcing this
disturbance may or may not produce some convection. Several model
solutions are dry but some of their ensemble members generate some
light QPF. Thus while the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of
rain, most of the area will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the next 6 hours as a FEW to
SCT diurnal cumulus deck affects CID, DBQ, and MLI and a BKN
mid-level cloud deck sits over BRL. A stratocumulus deck is
forecasted to move in from the west overnight and lower
throughout the night with MVFR conditions likely (60-80%) and
periods of IFR ceilings closer to sunrise (30-60% chance) which
prompted TEMPOs being included. In the lowest cloud decks, there
is the possibility (30-40% chance) of visibility less than 5SM,
but the low confidence led to its exclusion from this TAF
issuance. South-to-southeasterly winds of 5-10 knots are
expected to slowly subside overnight and turn variable after
midnight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-
     098-099.
IL...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Delaune

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion