142
FXUS63 KDVN 042353
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
653 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will be seen this afternoon and evening as a cold
  front passes through. Gusts upwards to 25-35 mph will be
  possible, which may result in localized/brief visibility
  reductions due to blowing dust.

- Scattered showers and storms will pass through the area this
  afternoon/evening, where a few strong to severe storms will be
  possible.

- Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday through the
  remainder of the week, gradually increasing at the end of the
  week, with low-end chances for light rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This afternoon and evening, strong mixing will result in gusty winds
throughout the area, with southwesterly winds ahead of the front and
north-northwesterly behind. We will generally see gusts between
25-35 mph, but a few higher gusts cannot be ruled out. This
will especially be true for areas along the approaching cold
front and for a few hours after frontal passage into tonight.
This may result in localized areas of blowing dust, as we have
seen over the weekend. Although, it should be localized and
result in brief visibility reductions if we do see some blowing
field dust.

Broad upper trof over the Upper Great Lakes region will slowly sag
south through the evening and night, with strong westerly flow set
up along the southern edge of this. This westerly flow starts out
towards the Rockies, which will help guide weak waves toward the
area through the night and tomorrow. Although, this
afternoon/evening we will see a cold front pass through the area,
associated with the seasonally strong surface low north of the Great
Lakes Region. Along this cold front, we will see isolated-scattered
showers/storms develop and pass through the area from northwest to
southeast. We can see showers/storms develop as early as 4PM north
of I-80, but confidence on the start time is lower owing to plenty
of dry air present. Coverage will gradually increase along the front
between 4-6PM, with better chances/coverage for areas south of I-80,
especially after 6PM. A few of these storms may be strong to severe
later this afternoon and evening. A look into model soundings would
favor wind being the primary threat, owing to plenty of dry air
resulting from strong evaporative cooling, with hail being
secondary. The better threat to see any hail will be south of I-80,
generally along/south of Highway 34. CAM soundings indicate better
instability (1500-2000 J/kg CAPE) and decent mid-level lapse rates
for hail in those areas.

By around 10PM, we should see the strongest storms move out of our
area, leaving us with post-frontal showers and storms through the
remainder of the night. The nighttime activity should largely remain
along/south of the Highway 34 corridor. Although, these will also be
relatively scattered in nature. QPF for the event as a whole will
remain low, with the whole area generally seeing 

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion