MD 2142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NE INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 2142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NE into far northwestern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262154Z - 262330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe wind
gusts will be possible for the next couple hours or so. Storm
coverage may remain too limited for a watch, though trends are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow
across parts of southwestern NE, diurnal heating amid lower 60s
dewpoints has aided in the development of isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon. A long/straight hodograph (around 35-40 kt of
effective shear) and steep midlevel lapse rates/moderate
surface-based buoyancy may continue to promote splitting supercells
and a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts. Given
minimal large-scale forcing for ascent, overall storm coverage may
remain too limited for a watch. However, given the favorable
environment and ongoing mode evolution, trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Smith.. 08/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39560016 39830089 40380173 40670200 40960205 41180195
41400155 41430113 40949999 40469938 39999943 39719971
39560016
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 2141 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into central
Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262153Z - 270000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible this evening with a
cluster of thunderstorms ongoing across MS and AL. Further
clustering is expected as storms move south/southeast.
DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of strong to severe storms ongoing near the MS/AL border. Over the
last hour, consolidating outflows have allowed for additional storm
development to take place, bolstering convective intensity within
the ongoing cluster. The warm and very humid air mass remains
strongly unstable ahead of these storms and should continue to
maintain their intensity into this evening. Further aided by weak
ascent at the base of a broad upper trough, storm coverage is likely
to increase over the next couple of hours given little inhibition.
Flow aloft remains weak which will support only modest storm
organizational and a multicellular mode.
Expectations are for outflow to continue to consolidate as it moves
south/southeast across eastern MS into central/southern AL. High
PWATs above 2.5 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts within
the more intense cores, potentially capable of occasional damaging
gusts. The primary limiting factor remains to be the modest
deep-layer shear. This should limit storm organization with only
intermittent intensification expected. While an isolated severe risk
is possible this evening a watch appears unlikely at this time.
..Lyons/Smith.. 08/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33818816 33848698 33328605 32578585 31358656 31338728
31458812 31648867 32098948 32398980 32739002 32969014
33228989 33818816
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 2140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Areas affected...eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262051Z - 262315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of
marginally severe hail and wind gusts up to 65-75 mph is expected to
increase through the remainder of this afternoon into evening. The
current expectation is that the threat will remain too limited
spatially to warrant a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristo and the Sacramento
Mountains within a moist, mid-level flow regime rotating around the
upper high. Latest objective analysis suggests that some degree of
capping exists across the adjacent High Plains of eastern NM, likely
limiting storms to the immediate vicinity of the mountains in the
near term, where isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible.
Continued daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization
should allow storms to move off the high terrain by late afternoon
into this evening with some CAM guidance suggesting an increase in
sporadic wind gusts up to 65-75 mph. Current thinking is that the
threat will remain somewhat isolated; however, if observational data
begin to suggest otherwise, a severe thunderstorm watch may need to
be considered.
..Mead/Mosier.. 08/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34820517 35720524 36650512 36940494 36930436 36670345
35780310 34890310 34300324 33880334 33850406 34290501
34820517
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more