MD 0730 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 217...218... FOR SOUTH GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Areas affected...South GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 217...218...
Valid 091725Z - 091900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 217, 218 continues.
SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat appears to be peaking with a pair
of supercells embedded within a linear cluster spreading into south
Georgia. Damaging wind potential should increase into late
afternoon. An additional tornado watch is likely to the south of the
existing tornado watches.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells, that are becoming absorbed into
the large-scale convective outflow surging south-southeast, have
recently intensified in central GA. With weaker and more veered
low-level flow with southern extent downstream, the tornado threat
may be peaking during the next hour or two. Still, with surface
temperatures warming through the mid 80s to low 90s, moderate
buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg should support an
increasing damaging wind threat across parts of south GA as the
cluster moves southeastward.
..Grams.. 05/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32368312 32378225 32248159 32168110 31778101 30758145
30618170 30568211 30918323 31308398 31638452 32048436
32368312
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MD 0729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND TOWARD THE RED RIVER
Mesoscale Discussion 0729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Areas affected...much of northwest into northern Texas and toward
the Red River
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 091657Z - 091930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with very large hail possible from northwest into
northern Texas. Damaging winds will also be possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending
from near Shreveport LA westward across the Metroplex and toward a
weak surface low near San Angelo, TX. The air mass is very moist and
unstable across the entire region, as can be seen from the 12Z FWD
sounding where elevated MUCAPE north of the boundary is around 4000
J/kg with steep midlevel lapse rates.
Further indicative of the quality of the elevated instability north
of the front are robust cells already forming over Young and Archer
Counties, which are situated atop relatively cool/dry surface
northeasterlies. Deep-layer shear may be effectively augmented for
cells moving eastward along the boundary later today as the air mass
along it heats, and around with 60 kt shear. Severe cells are also
expected to form near the weak surface low or close to the
dryline/stationary front intersection, with both very large hail and
damaging winds as storms increase in coverage.
..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32829971 33919838 34049730 33989676 33669652 33129647
31819694 31429746 31329796 31189874 31159934 31140004
31390029 31830036 32260018 32829971
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