MD 1189 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 351...354... FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast and Southeast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...354...
Valid 182048Z - 182215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351, 354 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
continues across Tornado Watches 351 and 354.
DISCUSSION...A modestly well-organized convective line remains
ongoing from the central Gulf Coast into eastern Alabama as of 2035
UTC. While no severe gusts have been observed over the past several
hours, moderate buoyancy and modestly enhanced effective shear
preceding this convection will continue to support the maintenance
of this convective line and additional clusters, with a threat for
damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread east/northeastward
through this evening in tandem with a mid-level disturbance and
attendant southerly, low-level jet. The MXX/EVX/EOX VAD profiles are
also sampling 125-150 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH ahead of this convection,
which will continue to promote the potential for a few tornadoes. A
relatively greater tornado risk may develop from eastern Alabama
into western Georgia where the convective line is gradually
developing a more favorable north-south orientation (more
perpendicular to deep-layer shear vectors) and where surface winds
are locally more backed.
..Chalmers.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30478890 31038773 31638657 31968622 32458609 32848588
33258533 33218475 32988446 32368433 31638446 30908487
30418577 30168658 30048779 29958870 29968915 30078936
30248932 30478890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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MD 1188 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 353... FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of New England
Concerning...Tornado Watch 353...
Valid 182006Z - 182130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 353 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to continue eastward for the next couple of
hours. Threat for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes will
continue.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across
eastern Maine into Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. These
storms have produced reports of wind damage and gusts up to 60-64
mph this afternoon. While thermo profiles have been marginal, the
near surface and mid-level flow remains strong. The low-level jet
axis has begun to shift offshore, however, deep layer flow around
40-50 kts remains near the coast into portions of eastern/central
Maine. Damaging wind and isolated tornado potential will continue
for another 1-2 hours within WW353 before gradual weakening and
storms shift offshore.
..Thornton.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42957247 43747183 44667128 44667048 44216989 43716983
42987040 42077157 41507225 41817293 42307302 42957247
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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MD 1187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of the south-central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181951Z - 182115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and gusty winds may
persist for another couple of hours before diminishing later this
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, persistent elevated convection remained
ongoing across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
This activity has produced isolated reports of 1.00-1.25" hail and
damaging wind gusts over the past several hours. Continued
low-to-mid tropospheric warm air advection (centered around 700 mb)
atop a low-level frontal inversion is sustaining these storms, with
latest objective analysis indicating the presence of 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and elongated hodographs above
the frontal inversion may continue to support occasional elevated
supercells capable of isolated large hail; although, relatively weak
mid-level lapse rates (generally less than 7 C/km) will largely
limit this threat. Occasional strong/damaging wind gusts may also
accompany these storms. This risk should then gradually diminish
with time through this afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is not
expected owing to the limited severe coverage/magnitude.
..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36919849 37219832 37349811 37449771 37589641 37619576
37519525 37459501 37089478 36749482 36449523 36199587
36079656 36119733 36269814 36519841 36919849
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181917Z - 182115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging downburst winds are possible this
afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a hot, humid air
mass in place across portions of the Southeast, with temperatures in
the upper-80s/low-90s F and dewpoints in the mid-70s to near 80
contributing to moderate to strong buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE).
While effective shear remains weak across the discussion area owing
to weak mid-level flow (as sampled by the 18z JAX observed
sounding), rich tropical moisture and PWAT exceeding 1.9-2.0" will
promote an isolated risk for water-loaded downbursts capable of
damaging wind gusts. The best potential for occasionally damaging
downbursts likely exists from southern South Carolina into central
and southeastern Georgia where the best overlap between buoyancy,
high PWAT values, and modestly-steep low-level lapse rates exists.
Given the isolated nature of this threat and the limited potential
for greater storm organization, watch issuance is not expected.
A more appreciable severe weather threat is expected to develop
across portions of western Georgia later this afternoon/evening. See
Tornado Watch 354 and Mesoscale Discussion #1185 for additional
details.
..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 33197894 32987907 32707953 32288023 31938066 31418107
31088138 30788191 30728196 30578269 30618322 30918383
31168402 31588422 31898425 32488420 32858415 33378407
33708393 34008373 34338312 34488249 34488157 34438053
34267968 34127926 33937904 33757891 33607884 33197894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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