MD 0491 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Areas affected...northern Kentucky into eastern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181638Z - 181915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may strengthen through the afternoon with potential
for strong to severe winds and some instances of hail.
DISCUSSION...Remnant shower activity is ongoing across portions of
the Ohio Valley from northern Kentucky into central Ohio. Ahead of
this activity, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s to 80s
amid broken mid-level cloud cover with increasing cumulus observed
in visible satellite. Dew points are largely in the mid to upper
50s, with a better plume of 60s dew points across northern Kentucky.
The cold front remains further west, extending from northern
Arkansas into central Indiana/northwestern Ohio.
Guidance suggests that some strengthening of activity along the
leading edge of the shower activity may be possible into the
afternoon. Though MLCAPE remains marginal, with around 250 J/kg
ahead of the ongoing activity in northern Kentucky, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates (7-8 degrees C/km), and strong deep layer
shear (around 40-50 kts) may support a few more organized storms to
develop. Should that occur, strong to severe winds and marginally
severe hail may be possible. Confidence in the exact evolution of
thunderstorm activity remains low but trends will be monitored.
..Thornton/Hart.. 04/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37488411 37818446 39408365 40748245 41248198 41458150
41528118 41498085 41468062 41368029 41288008 41187991
41007974 40927968 40597957 39428014 39078052 38778086
38328134 38118159 37728235 37328333 37488411
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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