5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Aug 2025 08:45:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Aug 2025 09:21:37 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131131
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the
Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the
system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is still producing showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the southwest of the center. However, the
system is now moving northward over cooler water, and the chances of
tropical or subtropical development are diminishing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
...ERIN CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 13 the center of Erin was located near 16.5, -41.9 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025000 WTNT35 KNHC 130842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025 ...ERIN CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 41.9W ABOUT 1400 MI...2255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 41.9 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion is expected into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025000 WTNT25 KNHC 130841 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 41.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 41.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 52.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 55.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 58.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.3N 63.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 66.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025000 WTNT45 KNHC 130843 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025 Deep convection is redeveloping intermittently over the western portion of Erin's circulation. However the system continues to have a rather ragged-looking appearance, with limited convective banding features. There appears to be some easterly shear over the storm at this time. Subjective Dvorak classifications are a little below tropical storm strength and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are generally in the 35-40 kt range. Based on these estimates, the advisory intensity remains at 40 kt. Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past couple of days, likely due to marginal SSTs, and a relatively dry mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass. However, it is expected that the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for intensification over the next 48 hours. In particular, Erin will be traversing progressively warmer ocean waters with likely a little less environmental subsidence. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous ones and continues to call for Erin to become a hurricane later this week. This is also supported by the corrected model consensus, HCCA, and Google DeepMind model guidance. Although the center is not easy to locate, it is estimated that the cyclone is continuing on its generally westward track, at about 260/17 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge is situated to the north of Erin, and in a few days a slight weakness develops in the ridge near 65W longitude. This should cause the tropical cyclone to begin to move west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed in a couple of days. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the official forecast is close to the HCCA solution and is on the southern side of the model track forecast suite. This is also very similar to the previous NHC prediction. Users are reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n mi (150-215 statute miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments to the forecast are still possible. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.5N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 16.4N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 16.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.8N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 18.6N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.5N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 21.3N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 23.4N 66.8W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 130842
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Aug 2025 08:45:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Aug 2025 09:21:37 GMT