5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Oct 2025 08:52:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Oct 2025 09:22:27 GMT
224
ABNT20 KNHC 141142
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
...LORENZO POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 14 the center of Lorenzo was located near 17.3, -44.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025671 WTNT32 KNHC 140850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 ...LORENZO POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 44.1W ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north tonight. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025797 WTNT22 KNHC 140849 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025 0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.1W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 0SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.1W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 44.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.9N 37.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.4N 34.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.5N 30.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.9N 32.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025000 WTNT42 KNHC 140851 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 Lorenzo has the appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with the estimated center exposed about 30 to 45 n mi outside the northwestern edge of the cyclone's main convective mass. GOES-19 proxy vis imagery suggests that Lorenzo's exposed low-level center has been moving farther away from the convection to the northwest over the past several hours. Lorenzo is struggling, even though SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analyses indicate that the cyclone has reached a lower wind shear environment compared to the stronger shear it was experiencing yesterday, since the upper low to the west of Lorenzo has moved farther away. The latest subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 31-45 kt. The initial intensity will be maintained at 50 kt for this advisory based on the earlier evening ASCAT data, but if convection doesn't develop closer to the low-level center soon, then the winds could start to decrease. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 13 kt. The northwest motion should continue today as Lorenzo approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn to the north is expected tonight, with a northeastward motion expected Wednesday and Thursday as the storm moves around the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge into the faster flow regime of the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly westward through the first 60 hours, and is very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model during that time period. Thereafter, the forecast is more or less similar to the previous NHC prediction, showing a partial clockwise loop from days 3-5, as Lorenzo (or its remnants) rotate southeastward and then southwestward around the aforementioned subtropical high. Yesterday, some of the global and regional models like the GFS, HWRF and HMON, as well as some of the ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensemble members were holding onto Lorenzo through the 5-day period, even indicating some strengthening over the next few days. However, the latest cycle of global and regional models all show Lorenzo either dissipating completely or becoming a remnant low by hour 72, with fewer ECMWF and Google Deep Mind ensemble members holding onto the system compared to the previous few cycles. In fact, most of the reliable model guidance shows a steady intensity for a day or so, followed by weakening, and then dissipation in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous prediction, but will not bite off yet on the aforementioned model solutions since Lorenzo is forecast to remain in relatively low shear and warm ocean temperatures for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance suite through hour 12, and then is above all of the intensity models from hour 24 onward. The intensity forecast is low confidence, and it's possible that Lorenzo could dissipate sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 25.5N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 27.9N 37.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 29.4N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 28.5N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 25.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025 000
FONT12 KNHC 140850
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Oct 2025 08:52:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Oct 2025 09:22:27 GMT