NWS Forcast Discussion
224
FXUS63 KDVN 281857
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
157 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frontal passage tonight will bring some rain and cooler but
still above normal temperatures for Thursday.
- A more active weather pattern develops late this week and
continues into next week. A significant system next week is
still possible but there are questions regarding where it
develops and how it evolves.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Warm advection has allowed convection to develop faster than
expected today. The main push of rain looks to from 9 PM to 4 AM
tonight along and immediately ahead of the cold front in the better
moisture transport and slightly steeper lapse rates.
However some sprinkles or event some showers will be possible this
afternoon and early evening in the strong waa.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Thursday night through Sunday night
Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on rain occurring Friday
The first of two waves moves through the area Friday into Saturday.
This wave has respectable moisture associated with it and thus the
rain chances during this time period look reasonably good. The model
consensus has 60-80% chances for rain which `may` be on the high
side.
Moisture from the remnants of Vance move through the Midwest
Saturday night into Sunday. Compared to yesterday, the bulk of the
moisture is now being shunted south of the area. This southward
shift raises questions regarding the rain chances Saturday night
into Sunday. The model consensus has come down on the overall
chances by 10 points and are now at 20-35%. If the southern shift on
this moisture plume holds, I would expect rain chances to further
decrease Saturday night into Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday
Assessment...medium (35-50%) confidence of a significant system
occurring in the central CONUS
In the Monday through Wednesday time period, some models are
advertising a significant system while others are not. This
difference looks to be related to whether or not there is phasing
between the northern and southern jets. IF phasing occurs, a more
significant and slower system will be seen. IF no phasing occurs,
then a weaker and faster system would occur.
The model consensus has slowed down the system by 12 hours and is
now suggesting a Monday night into Tuesday night time frame for the
best rain chances. Given the two possible scenarios in play, the
model consensus has a daily risk of rain from Monday through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Cold front to sweep through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois
after 06z/29 with SHRA and a few TSRA along/ahead of the front.
Ahead of the front LLWS is forecast in the 1.2 to 1.6 kft AGL
layer. Once frontal passage occurs, CIGS will be close to 3 kft
AGL so areas of MVFR conditions are expected.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion
