Storm Prediction Center
SPC MD 2415
MD 2415 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 698... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 698...
Valid 282225Z - 282330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for at least severe hail will continue over the
next few hours. The best severe threat, including the chance for a
tornado, will be with an ongoing supercell over southeastern MN.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, including those with a
history of severe hail, continues ahead of a surface low. The
majority of hail reports and MRMS mosaic MESH signatures have been
with storms north of the warm front, where forcing for ascent has
been maximized amid elevated buoyancy. Over the last couple of
hours, thunderstorms have also intensified well ahead of the cold
front, along a surface trough, including a supercell over
southeastern MN. MRMS MESH indicates that 1-2 inch diameter hail may
be falling from this storm. Furthermore, while this supercell is
traversing the eastern edge of surface-based buoyancy and is merging
into a linear cluster, it is also approaching the warm front, where
effective SRH may be maximized (i.e. 300+ m2/s2 per latest
mesoanalysis). As such, the best chance for severe hazards
(including a tornado) would probably be associated with this storm
in the near term.
..Squitieri.. 10/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45759347 46079219 46209124 45979076 45299068 44659090
44409168 44409257 44489308 44739347 45759347
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC MD 2414
MD 2414 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and northern Iowa into
southeastern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282127Z - 282300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe wind and hail will
accompany intensifying thunderstorms over central into northern IA.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has recently initiated
immediately ahead of a surface pressure trough. Ahead of these
storms, surface temperatures have warmed well into the 70s F, with
at least upper 50s F dewpoints noted. With 7+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates noted (per latest forecast soundings), MUCAPE has exceeded
1000 J/kg well out ahead of the storms. Furthermore, these storms
are progressing toward the core of a 40+ kt LLJ, supporting over 35
kts of effective bulk shear and enlarged/curved low-level hodographs
(per regional VADs). This kinematic and thermodynamic environment
would support supercells capable of at least a severe wind/hail
threat. However, some MLCINH remains, so some questions remain how
widespread severe will become. Nonetheless, at least isolated
instance of severe gusts/hail and perhaps a tornado are possible
this evening.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42099443 43329396 43919365 44219311 44219238 43909196
43519185 42939201 42499231 42209272 42019318 41899367
41889415 42099443
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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